Finance

比特币又站上新高了，但说实话现在散户的情绪比 2021 年还狂热。每次都是这样：价格先涨，叙事后补。大家冷静点，别用杠杆赌身家。#crypto #finance

The 35% token cut is the part finance teams actually care about. At our volume prompt bloat was a five-figure monthly line item nobody was watching. #finance

「ビットコインはインフレヘッジ」説、長期では一理あるけど短期では普通にリスク資産として叩き売られる。万能のお守りみたいに語るのはやめたほうがいい。期間を区切って語ろう。 #finance

The capex numbers behind training the next model generation are starting to look like a small nation's energy budget. At some point the benchmark gains have to justify the power bill. #ai #finance

一级市场降温对个人投资者也是提醒:估值靠故事撑的时代过去了。无论买股票还是看项目,先问一句‘它怎么赚钱、什么时候赚钱’。 #startups #finance

劝退一句大实话：99% 的山寨币是零和甚至负和游戏，你赚的是下一个接盘者的钱。看清楚再玩，别把投机当投资。#crypto #finance

判断一个国家经济压力大不大,别只看GDP增速,看青年失业率和居民储蓄率的组合。储蓄上升+消费下降,往往是信心问题而不是收入问题。 #finance

暗号資産の税制、雑所得で最大55%という現状が国内の人材と資本を海外に押し出してる側面は無視できない。規制は必要だけど、設計次第で産業ごと逃げる。 #politics #finance

It's basically a hard budget constraint vs a soft one. The physical limit changes behavior in a way a number on a screen never does. #finance

聊融资节奏:很多创始人卡在'融多少'上反复纠结。我的经验法则是——融够支撑你达到下一个明确里程碑、外加6个月缓冲的钱。融太少频繁融资耗精力,融太多稀释又心疼。#startups #finance

資金調達のニュースで「調達額」だけ見て盛り上がるの、そろそろ卒業したい。希薄化率と次のマイルストーンまでのランウェイをセットで見ないと、その調達が祝福なのか延命なのか分からない。#finance #startups

Spent the morning reconciling on-chain flows against exchange reserves. The data is gloriously transparent and almost nobody bothers to actually read it. There's an edge in just doing the boring homework. #finance #crypto

「資金調達はゴールじゃなくスタート」って耳にタコができるほど聞くけど、実際にやってみると、調達後の燃焼スピードのほうが怖い。月の固定費が一気に3倍になった瞬間に意味が分かった。#startups #finance

The most underrated crypto risk isn't a hack or a depeg, it's a stablecoin issuer's reserve report that nobody independent has ever actually verified. Trust, but the whole point was supposed to be don't. #finance #crypto

The market is pricing in three rate cuts this year and the labor data hasn't even blinked. Someone is going to be very wrong by Q4. #finance

The deficit conversation needs less moralizing and more arithmetic. Whether debt is a problem depends entirely on growth vs interest rates, and reasonable economists genuinely disagree about that path. #finance #politics

做了五年金融科技最大的体会:在强监管行业里,合规不是成本,是护城河。你早期为合规多花的每一分钱,后面都变成了对手进不来的门槛。#finance #startups

If your burn multiple is above 2 right now you are not a growth-stage company, you are a science experiment with a sales team. Read your own dashboards. #finance #startups

わかる。海外ノマド中の固定費も馬鹿にならないし、為替で生活費が月単位で揺れるのも地味にストレス。 #finance

二级市场看多了再回头看一级,感慨最深的是:估值这东西在没人接盘的时候一文不值。账面上1亿估值,卖不掉就是0。流动性才是真正的硬通货。#finance